Coronavirus at the obstacle of the new academic year: research of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute scientists

Scientists of the World Data Centre "Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development" released the results of the following forecast spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine at the beginning of the new academic year. According to their data, the situation continues to become worse. In most European countries, there is a growing trend of new cases of coronavirus. Ukraine is rapidly approaching the number of European countries with the highest daily incidence rates. Together with Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Romania, it falls into the group with high rates of new daily cases: 1000-2500 thousands a day. The number of regions that do not meet quarantine standards in Ukraine has reached 16 and continues to grow. According to the indicator of bed occupancy in hospitals, the number of regions that do not meet the “50%” criterion has recently increased to 10, which forces the Ministry of Health to deploy additional places in second-wave hospitals.

A new challenge for Ukraine is the beginning of the school year. Communication and mobility are expected to increase by 2-3 times (probably without strict adherence to epidemiological measures) among educators and their families (12-15 million people total). The Ministry of Health of Ukraine presented a list of anti-epidemic measures in educational institutions, and placed the daily control over their implementation on the heads of institutions. Decisions made by educational institutions at different levels differ significantly and are poorly coordinated.

Despite the proposed measures, the new circumstances may lead to further outbreaks of the disease in the autumn-winter period, which will be exacerbated by seasonal influenza and respiratory diseases. In this situation, the health care system of Ukraine, which has already reached its limit in a number of regions of Ukraine, faces a special challenge.

Using a similarity method in mathematical modelling, a recurrent neural network with long short-term memory such as LSTM and a multilayer neural network Back Propagation based on the mechanism of "sliding window", scientists predict that as of the first half of September 2020 there will be an increase in new patients Ukraine to about 150 thousand, and by the end of September - to 190-200 thousand, the daily growth of new infected people may range from 1500-2600 people, the daily number of recovered people will be 40% -60% of the number of infected. Ukraine's vulnerability rate (mortality) in this period will range from 2.2% to 2.38%.

Further spread of COVID-19 will depend on both systematic, effective government action and the social discipline of the population, which is of particular importance, in particular given the beginning of the school year and the autumn-winter period, with its risks of new outbreaks of seasonal influenza and respiratory diseases.