Current Information About Coronavirus Prior To Introduction of Total Lockdown

In their study, researchers from Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute and the Lev Gromashevsky Institute of epidemiology & Infectious diseases of the NAMS of Ukraine showed that Ukraine has recently become the third country in Europe by the number of detected coronavirus cases (16,294 new cases per day) - after Italy and Russia - and the seventh in the world - after the United States, Brazil, India, Turkey, Russia, Italy. Today, more than 362,000 Ukrainians are trying to overcome the coronavirus disease. Pressure on health services has significantly increased during October and November and is approaching a critical level. Due to the difficult pandemic situation, on November 13, 2020, the government introduced a weekend lockdown in Ukraine. The decision to extend it or move to a full lockdown will be made in early December based on the analysis of the growth in the number of patients with COVID-19, when the consequences of the weekend quarantine will be clearer.

There has been a strong correlation between the number of detected cases of COVID-19 and the number of reported cases of influenza and SARS in recent weeks (a correlation coefficient of 0.88). The analysis of the data clearly indicates that there are underdiagnosed cases of COVID-19 with mild and moderate forms whilst anti-epidemic measures in the country since March 2020 and that there is lack of confirmation of other respiratory pathogens and influenza virus.

A strong correlation (correlation coefficient 0.99) is also observed between the number of cases diagnosed with pneumonia and the number of detected cases of COVID-19 during the same follow-up period. It testifies to the fact that most cases of pneumonia are directly related to COVID-19.

Performed predictive modeling using technical data analysis, the method of similarity in mathematical modeling, recurrent neural network with long short-term memory type LSTM and neural network Back Propagation (BPNN) shows that the number of newly diagnosed patients in the first half of December 2020 can likely range from 14,000 to 20,000 people per day. At the same time, the rate of adaptation to the disease in Ukraine (the ratio of the number of people who died per day to the sum of the number of deaths and those who recovered during the day) is slowly improving, which likely reduces mortality in the first half of December 2020 to (1,73– 1,76%), which is almost twice lower than the level of this indicator in the spring-summer period.