The peak incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine is expected to be from 14 to 22-23 April

More than 60,000 people will be ill and more than 4,500 people may die. These are the forecasts of the World Data Center of Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute.

World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development based on Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute works under the auspices of the  International Science Council. It is one of 53 global data centres located in 13 countries that accumulate, analyse and process large amounts of Big Data. Recently, one of the most urgent tasks of the  International Science Council and its subordinate data centres has been to investigate the pandemic of the coronavirus in the world and to apply advanced science  to overcome it.

According to this strategy, ukrainian scientists from the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development analysed the impact of the coronavirus  pandemic on the economy of Ukraine, developed a predictive mathematical model, conducted computer simulation of this phenomenon and developed scenarios for possible course of events. Scenarios simulation results shows that for Ukraine , the COVID-19 rate-of-change feature is getting its maximum at 51-52 days from the first registered patient, namely in the second half of April 2020 (April 22-23). Once the maximum is reached, due to the country's strict quarantine measures, the previous trend should be "broken" and the rate of increase in the incidence of the disease should begin to decline.  

According to pessimistic scenario, the number of infected people can reach 60,000 by the end of April, and more than 4,500 people may die. According to optimistic scenario, which can occur under a number of important circumstances, including possible effective action by the government, these sad indicators could be reduced by at least three times.

The results of this study can be used by the Ukrainian government to develop a plan of action aimed at preventing a pandemic and overcoming its effects.