The study by the Institute of Advanced Defense Technologies and the Information and Analytical Situation Center of Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, jointly with leading experts of Ukraine, analyzed security threats to Ukraine on the time horizon until 2030. It also includes the characteristics of the future defense-industrial complex, capable of asymmetric means to deter possible external aggression until 2030.
The foresight represents a set of seven scenarios of the security state of Ukraine. Four outlines capture the time horizon until 2025 while three - until 2030. Scientists estimated their probability through the Delphi method.
The most favorable for Ukraine until 2025 is the scenario Self-Defense (Cold World). Its probability is 15.0%. Self-Defense provides for ending hostilities in eastern Ukraine and returning to the sustainable development of the state. It is possible by consolidating the people and elites around national interests, strengthening its defense industry, introducing territorial defense, adopting new doctrines (strategies) of Ukraine's foreign policy, diplomatic, intelligence work, and restoring international security assurances of Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum. Until 2030, the Self-Defense scenario can change into the desired synopsis Protected State with a probability of 5.0%.
The Freeze the Conflict (Sustained Armistice) scenario may become into reality until 2025 with a probability of 25.0%. It is possible if the West, Ukraine, and Russia reach a political compromise by deploying international armed peacekeepers along the line of demarcation under an OSCE / UN mandate. This scenario will foster Ukraine's movement towards EU and NATO standards; concentrate state resources on economic progress; implement social transformations under the EU and NATO standards.
Under the conditions of current geopolitical and domestic trends until 2025, the least desirable but most likely scenario for Ukraine may become the Crisis Conservation (Cold War) scenario. Its probability is about 40.0%. As a result of the external hybrid influence and internal discord, the people and elites will continue to divide. Ukraine will lose main components of the country's sovereignty in the international arena, for instance, visa-free travel to the EU. Under the worst conditions, until 2030, the scenario Conservation of the Crisis may deepen Ukraine to Alien Subjectivity with the likelihood of 15.0%, or Disintegration with a conditional probability of 10%.
The Gray Zone scenario (Neither War Nor Peace) has a conditional probability of 20.0%. The conflict in eastern Ukraine will continue, the international coalition supporting Ukraine will end, external hybrid influence aimed at deepening the division of the people and elites will strengthen, the economic decline will increase. Ukraine will move towards a buffer model, a separate zone between Russia and the European Union. In this case, the EU countries will abolish the visa-free regime and distance from Ukraine by a strong border. Until 2030, this scenario may move to Disintegration with a conditional probability of 10.0%.
Researchers believe that Ukraine should not ignore the worst of the above scenarios. It is a good idea to stop dreaming of global Ukrainocentrism. The country should consolidate society and elites around national interests, build a high-tech economy, national security, fair environment, and comfort. Ukrainians should not expect that someone from the outside will hand over a successful future. It is we that design and preserve Ukraine. This study describes the situation to achieve this goal.