Сovid-19: Autumn-winter Pandemic Outbreak

Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute scientists have published the results of a study of the features of the outbreak of the Сovid-19 pandemic in the early autumn-winter period.  The tendency for the disease in most countries of the world and in Ukraine continues to increase.  The number of patients in Ukraine has changed from a linear rate in May - August 2020 to exponential in September - October this year.  Over the past few weeks, Ukraine, along with France, Britain, Spain, Russia, Poland, Germany, Italy and Romania, has entered the group of leaders among European countries in the number of new cases.  The mortality rate in Ukraine remains at 2.01–2.65% with a tendency to increase.

Performed predictive modeling using the method of similarity in mathematical modeling, recurrent neural network with long short-term memory type LSTM and neural network Back Propagation (BPNN) shows that in the period (11.10.20–23.10.20) the number of newly identified patients can  fluctuate in the range of 4500-7800 people per day.

The situation could become too difficult for the country's medical system.  The occupancy rate of diagnosed patients is approaching 40%, and if we take into account suspicious and unconfirmed cases, this figure reaches almost 60%, which can lead to its significant overload and inability to fully perform its functions.

The academic year in Ukraine lasts more than a month.  Classes in the educational institutions of the regions with the red epidemic zone at the end of August began on September 14.  During this time, the intensity of communications has doubled or tripled for about 12-15 million people: schoolchildren, students, teachers, family members, which has certainly affected the current outbreak of the pandemic. The Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine presented a list of preventive anti-epidemic measures in educational institutions, in particular, recommending them temporarily switch to distance learning.

The epidemic situation in terms of regions of Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating both in number of new patients and geographical spread.  The Government Commission for Technogenic and Enivironmental Safety and Emergencies has divided the regions, districts and cities of Ukraine into green, yellow, orange and red quarantine zones.  Over the past six weeks, the number of oblasts in the green zone has decreased from 13 to 2. Only Kirovohrad and part of the Kherson Oblast are still in this zone, but their disease rates are slowly growing.  The city of Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine are in the yellow and orange zones.  The city of Kaniv, Cherkasy Oblast, and the city of Sumy, Sumy Oblast, have entered the red quarantine zone.  It is observed a threatening increase in new daily cases of Covid-19 there.