In research scientists have shown that the number of patients with COVID-19 in Ukraine has increased significantly over the past month. Today, more than 221,000 Ukrainians are trying to overcome the disease. Mortality rate in October was almost twice as high as in September.
This increase is partly explained by the doubling of communication activity of about 11 million people who took part in the local elections on October 25 and in campaigning and preparatory activities. A further jump in morbidity due to local elections is expected from November 6 to 13, given that the incubation period lasts an average of 4-6 days and there is a delay in the registration of COVID-19 cases for 5-7 days.
It is worrying that as of the beginning of November, almost all regions of Ukraine do not meet the criterion of occupancy of up to 50% of beds in the last 5 days in health care facilities. On average in Ukraine, this figure is 67.2%, which indicates a critical situation.
The onset of the traditional flu and SARS season significantly complicates the spread of COVID-19. In the three-week period after October 25, the number of diseases is expected to increase. These may include cases of mild or moderate COVID-19 that have not been PCR-tested or tested negative for Sars-CoV-2.
Predictive modelling performed of recurrent neural network with long short-term memory type LSTM and neural network Back Propagation (BPNN) using the method of similarity in mathematical modelling shows : in the period 01.11–13.11.20 the number of newly diagnosed patients may vary in the range of 6,500–12,000 people per day. The forecast value of the mortality rate for the specified period of time will not exceed 2.02–2.36%.
Through their research, scientists draw the attention of the authorities and society to the need to comply with all precautionary measures in this difficult time.