Scientists Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute described possible phases of further development of coronavirus infection

Researchers of the World Data Center "Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development" at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, based on Foresight methodology, performed the second prediction modeling of possible phases of further development of coronavirus infection in Ukraine.

On the short-term time horizon (up to one week) the most probable is continuation of the linear nature of coronavirus spreading in Ukraine (staying in the state of "plateau", which was indicated by the first study of Kyiv polytechnics with separate "bursts", as it was observed on 17, 23, 30 April and 2 May 2020.

In the medium term (until the end of August 2020), the process of coronavirus spread in Ukraine may go through the following phases:

By the third decade of May 2020, a pandemic of a variable nature is most likely to have increased (linear growth may temporarily shift to an exponential one and vice versa). This is explained by the worst quarantine regime in Europe (mobility of cars and foot traffic in Ukraine is 1.5-3 times higher than in European countries), the lowest percentage of coronavirus tests conducted in Europe (3.5-8 times lower than in Europe), one of the highest percentage of infected doctors in Europe (19.1% of the total number of patients) and some other adverse factors.

During the third decade of May, the peak of a pandemic may be most likely.

Slow decline of coronavirus pandemics may occur during the warmest time of the year in Ukraine, from the end of May to the end of August 2020, as the population gradually acquires collective immunity, improving the health care system, increasing social responsibility and consciousness of the population.

During the autumn-winter period of 2020-2021, the occurrence of the second wave of the pandemic is not excluded.